After two vastly different NBA Finals games at Chase Center, the series shifts to TD Garden, where the host Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors each look to grab control.
For the Celtics, two keys have emerged through the first two games: Jayson Tatum walking the line between scorer and facilitator, and their ongoing battle against the turnover bug. The latter has had massive implications in Boston getting blitzed by Golden State in back-to-back third quarters.
For the Warriors, the burden lies on Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole to provide Finals MVP favorite Stephen Curry with some offensive support. Whether it's Thompson hitting YouTube for inspiration or Poole finding a spark after his half-court buzzer-beater in Game 2, both Golden State stars need to find their game.
What lies ahead in Wednesday's crucial Game 3 (9 p.m. ET, ABC) between the Celtics and Warriors? What trends have developed through the first two showdowns? Our NBA experts break down what will matter most in Game 3 and throughout the rest of the series.
For Celtics, one stat rules them all
Throughout these playoffs, you can accurately predict what the result will be for the Celtics in a given game based on a single stat: turnovers.
Boston's record when it has 15 turnovers or fewer: 13-2. Boston's record when it has 16 turnovers or more: 0-5.
That trend has carried over into the NBA Finals, as the Celtics committed 12 turnovers in their Game 1 win and coughed up the ball 19 times in their Game 2 loss.
"That's been an ongoing theme in the playoffs so far," Celtics coach Ime Udoka said.
Any team will see better results when it doesn't commit turnovers, but the contrast has been devastating for Boston. When the Celtics have a chance to set their defense, they are an exceptionally difficult team to score against in half-court offensive sets.
Giving teams free shots in transition as a result of turnovers takes away one of Boston's biggest strengths. And in the Finals, allowing Curry and the Golden State Warriors fast-break opportunities is a recipe for disaster.
Boston learned that the hard way in Game 2, as the Celtics' 19 turnovers turned into a staggering 33 points for Golden State. Meanwhile, Boston turned 12 turnovers into 15 points, an 18-point swing in Golden State's direction in a game the Warriors won by 19.
"I know we can prevent a lot of those," Celtics big man Al Horford said. "In order for us to [have] a better chance of winning, we have to cut those down."
2022 NBA Finals: 3rd Quarters
| GS | BOS |
|---|
| Points | 73 | 38 |
| FG | 22-48 (46%) | 11-36 (31%) |
| 3-pt FG | 13-25 | 5-16 |
| Turnovers | 5 | 10 |
Those turnovers have also helped fuel Boston's other recurring problem in these playoffs: awful third quarters. Against the Warriors -- through two games, Golden State has dominated the third quarters 73-38 -- those lapses in focus will be even more painful than in past rounds against a Milwaukee Bucks team missing Khris Middleton and a banged-up Miami Heat squad.
Keep an eye on Boston's turnovers in Game 3. Know where that number winds up, and you'll have a good handle on where the game will, too.
.jpg)